Wednesday 24 September 2014

At Least We're Better Than the Flames...Or Are We?

Misery makes for good frenemies.

Growing up as a young boy living in Edmonton in the eighties, there were two things that every kid knew for certain: We loved the Oilers and we HATED the Calgary Flames. An extremely simple credo that we all lived by, I didn't know of one single Flames fan in my area. Not one. Or at least no one that had ever dared admit it in public. I think it would have been easier to come out of the closet in those days than to admit any love for our southern neighbors.

Young Man in Flames Jersey:  "Mom, Dad, there's something I need to talk to you about..."
Mom and Dad:  "Oh, no. Here it comes...
Young Man in Flames Jersey: "I'm sure you've suspected it for a while, but I'd just like to be honest                                                      with you and clear the air once and for all...."
Mom and Dad: "Son, you don't have to..."
Young Man in Flames Jersey: "...I'm gay."
Mom and Dad: "Huh? Oh, Thank god! That's a relief!"
Young Man in Flames Jersey: "You're not upset? Why did you look so worried just now?"
Mom and Dad: "We thought you were going to tell us you're a Flames fan."
Young Man in Flames Jersey: "Well, I AM, but I don't see..."
Mom and Dad: "NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!"

Those showing any tendencies towards cheering for the Calgary Flames  in Edmonton were subject to "re-education".


And we despised them for good reason too - they were just as good (almost) as we were. Both teams were so stacked with talent, the 300km stretch of highway between the two cities was known as the Valley of Death. Also in that era, all roads to the Stanley Cup went through our province and save a couple of years, the winner of the famed "Battle of Alberta" always went on to compete in the Cup finals. So we HAD to be better than the "Cowtown Shames" because when we weren't, we were out of the playoffs by the second round. And we met almost every year for the better part of a decade. Epic battles and mayhem ensued.

NOTE: For you younger fans, it was a lot like the mid to late nineties when the Oilers faced the Dallas Stars seven years in a row except for the not ever beating them part. In fact, the ONE time we did beat the Stars, I'm pretty sure we were expecting some instantaneous rule change by the league, forcing us to play them again in the second round.

Ex-Flame Joe Nieuwendyk returned with Mike Modano as a Dallas Star to torture the Oilers nearly every season in the 90's. Their playoff battles were just like the 80's -ish. The Stars were equal to the talent laden Flames of old and the Oilers were just like...well, let's just say they almost moved to Houston. 

Unfortunately, after the eighties, the great Alberta clashes waned with the teams' standings. Neither one was able to hold onto its stars, made poor trades and suffered with the Canadian economy of the time and became perennial cellar dwellers. Eventually, all the two teams were contesting was who was going to make the higher pick in the next draft lottery. What was once a great hockey war was now a tepid match for the title of  "At Least We're Not as Bad as You." Sure, the Flames had the cup run of 2004 and the Oilers had their turn in 2006, but neither of the provincial rivals had any impact or influence on the other during those playoffs. Seriously, watching these two teams play over the last few years has been like watching two nerds fight over who was going get to ask out the head cheerleader, knowing full well regardless of who asked what the outcome would be. In fact, things had been so bad for so long for both clubs, I felt a kinship with the Flames and found myself actually cheering for Calgary in '04. If 10 year old me could have seen 2004 me, he would have been disgusted...

What were once two proud franchises, now stand two teams in the midst of "rebuilding". Some say the Oilers have been working at theirs longer, but to my eye, the Flames have been there right along with them. They just spent a few years in denial. It is true, however, that Calgary began the fire sale on their team just over a year ago and Edmonton has been amassing first round picks for the last five years. Therefore, it stands to reason that the Oilers should be further ahead in their process than the Flames and by all rights, should be the better team. At least, the majority of sports writers and especially Oilers fans, seem to think so. But after watching the split squad games between to the clubs on Sunday, I began to wonder if they were right. After all, I read many times over last year, nearly the exact same statements on how the Oil were going to take the 'next step' and were going to leave the Flames in the rear view mirror. Last time I checked, the Oilers picked third this year at the draft while the Flames went fourth...

So in order to prepare myself for what could be another disappointing season of looking up at the Flames in the standings, I thought I'd do a little grade school "compare and contrast" project on the two teams to see if I could find any merit in the sports worlds projections for this year. I figured the easiest way to go about this (I love the path of least resistance) would be to break the teams down into its positions - centers, wingers, defense etc. and see how they measured up.

CENTERS
 FLAMES                                                                               OILERS
Matt Stajan                                                                            Nugent-Hopkins
Jiri Hudler                                                                              Boyd Gordon
Mikael Backlund                                                                     Leon Draisaitl
Sean Monahan                                                                       Mark Arcobello
Sam Bennett                                                                          Anton Lander
Lance Bouma                                                                         Bogdan Yakimov
Joe Colborne                                                                          Will Acton

Looking at this list, the Oilers have a leg up on the number one center and number 3/4, depending where you slot your defensive specialists. Although Jiri Hudler only had two less points than Nuge last year, I would have to believe that just about every team in the league, given the choice, would pick #93 a thousand times over - he has way more up side and a larger skill set. Also, Boyd Gordon is one of the premier face-off men in the league and is a beast on the defensive side of the puck. Two points, Oil. That being said however, the Flames have Backlund, Stajan and Monahan in the middle of the order with a combined 1000+ games of NHL experience and approx. 500 total points. Conversly, Lander and Arcobello have played a whopping 136 total contests. Worse than that, the two Oiler pivots have combined for a paltry 6 goals and and 20 assists over that span. Two points, Calgary.

An interesting item to watch will be the career paths of Draisaitl and Bennett who have a better than great chance of making their squads this year. Taken #3 and #4 respectively in last summers draft, there were arguments made by both camps about who would be the better long term pick and no one knew for certain which way Edmonton would go with their choice. Bennett had both the skill and determination of a Doug Gilmour and Neon Leon was being compared to the size and play making ability of Anze Kopitar. Ultimately, the Oilers drafted for size and took Draisaitl, but either player could have easily donned the copper and blue and they will forever be compared to one another due to being drafted a three hour drive apart. For our case here, we'll call them even.

RESULT: Even. Edmonton is stronger at the #1 and #4 positions and Calgary has the edge with depth for #2, #3  and injury replacements. The rookie battle is a dead heat and one of this years better story lines.

WINGERS
FLAMES                                                                              OILERS
Devin Setoguchi                                                                    Taylor Hall
Mason Raymond                                                                    Jordan Eberle
Curtis Glencross                                                                    David Perron
David Jones                                                                           Benoit Pouliot
Brandon Bollig                                                                      Teddy Purcell
Brian McGrattan                                                                    Nail Yakupov       
Sven Baertschi                                                                       Matt Hendricks
Johnny Gaudreau                                                                   Luke Gazdic

There is no point in even pretending that one column isn't far more impressive than the other. The top six names on the left combined for the same goal totals +4 than the first two on the right. Not only are the Oilers deeper on the wing, they're bigger too with the additions of Pouliot and Purcell. McGrattan is probably the current NHL heavyweight, but Gazdic is the next contender in line without a doubt. Glencross is the one that got away (he looked so good as an Oiler) and is sure to burn us, as usual, for a few goals (he already got one in pre-season), but I think we've finally replaced his skill set with Pouliot. After seeing him in Penticton, I believe the Flames have a player in Hobey-Baker Award winner Johnny Gaudreau but he's still a rookie and we can match him with our unknown "super star", Nail Yakupov.

RESULT: Edge Oilers. A big edge. The Flames lost their best winger when Mike Cammeleri left town. Replacing him with Setoguchi or Raymond is like asking Steve Buscemi to fill in for Brad Pitt. After Glencross, everyone else are just extras.

The Flames could bring Lanny Mcdonalds' moustache out of retirement and Put it on Defense or better yet, in goal. Nothing would get by that thing.

DEFENSE
FLAMES                                                                             OILERS
Mark Giordano                                                                    Justin Schultz
Dennis WIdeman                                                                 Jeff Petry
Ladislav Smid                                                                      Nikita Nikitin
TJ Brodie                                                                             Mark Fayne
Kris Russell                                                                         Andrew Ference
Deryk Engelland                                                                  Martin Marincin 
Corey Potter                                                                        Keith Aulie
Tyler Wotherspoon                                                              Oskar Klefbom
Patrick Sieloff                                                                      Darnell Nurse

Neither of these two defense corps would blow anybody away. I will give two points to the Flames for their top pairing of Wideman and Giordano. Two men in their early thirties (31 and 30) they boast plenty of NHL experience with a healthy dose of offensive up side. Also, Giordano has not only become the go to D-man in Calgary, but is the unquestionable leader of his team - something the Oilers lack. Now, Mactavish would have us all believe that Schultz is the second coming of Duncan Keith, but that remains to be seen and even if it even comes close to fruition, it won't be for a year or two. I will give a point to the Oilers for the second pairing of Fayne and Nikitin, they're a shutdown duo if ever there was one. But don't discount Ladi Smid, though. Once a reliable shut down man himself, I know he tanked after being traded to the Flames. But he loved being an Oiler, and getting traded must have been a lot like getting dumped by your fiancee and then having her suggest to you, "Maybe you ought to date my sister."  Ouch. That takes some time to get over, but expect a bounce back year from him

I'll give the Oil a second point for their size on the back end. They average 6'3" and well over 200lbs. The Flames on the other hand, would have a hard time intimidating Harvey the Hound. At times, size can be made up for with speed, but that bunch in red and black aren't particularly quick either.

RESULT: Even. But, Lord help the Flames if they have injury problems. The Oilers have multiple blue chip prospects chomping at the bit to break their way into the league this year. The Flames have Corey Potter. I hope they wear helmets during pre-game skates.



GOALIES
FLAMES                                                                          OILERS
Jonas Hiller                                                                      Ben Scrivens
Kari Ramo                                                                       Viktor Fasth
Joni Ortio                                                                         Richard Bachman

The Oiler faithful are jumping up and down about the goaltending duo of Viktor Fasth and Ben Scrivens after a long drought of quality net minding. Both are poised to become NHL starters and either one could take over as the Oilers #1 netminder. Potential just waiting to be tapped. Jonas Hiller however, IS  a #1 netminder for over 6 seasons. He has a 162-110 win loss record with career save percentage of.916 and GAA of 2.51. One point Flames. As for the back up position, Kari Ramo had respectable numbers last year with a .911 save percentage and 2.65 GAA on a terrible Flames team. He's also started the same number of games as Scrivens and Fasth combined. That's a wash.

RESULT: Edge Flames. Scrivens and Fasth may be the answer the Oilers have been looking for in net, but Hiller doesn't have as many questions.


WINNER: OILERS by a small margin. Edmonton and Calgary are fairly even at center and defense and you could argue multiple points for either side. In net, the Flames know exactly what they have in Jonas Hiller and without the pressure of starting every night, Kari Ramo is a capable back-up. The Oilers on the other hand are rolling the dice between the pipes, hoping for a winner between Fasth and Scrivens. It'll be ugly if they're both losers. Where Edmonton pulls ahead (at least on paper) is on the wings. This version of the Edmonton Oilers is as deep as I've ever seen them in quite some time, stacked with three near-guaranteed 20+ goal scores and three more probable 20+ goal scorers. At the very least, this team should be able to generate offense in bunches.

A couple of things should be noted however, if last year was any kind of lesson for the Oilers. One, if the goal tending implodes, all the skilled wingers and larger defense in the NHL won't be able to help this team. Two, the Oilers looked better on paper than the Flames in 2013 but still managed to finish lower in the standings than their rivals. More importantly, what Calgary lacked in high end talent, they made up for with hard work and shear determination. They may not have been able to win a game on most nights, but they weren't going to just hand it over to their opponents either. On the other side, there were televised shots of the Oilers watching the clock from the bench, calculating how much time before they could get the hell out of there. If we could just fuse the Flames work ethic and apply it to the Oilers talent, we may have something. To me, it's the real difference maker in where these two long time enemies will end up at years end.

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